AI Keeps Coming

A New York City-based entrepreneur and technologist named Matt Shumer posted this essay to x.com (formerly Twitter) this week, and it has caused quite a stir.

He starts by reminding the reader of how things felt a few weeks before the COVID shutdown. How some of us started to hear whispers of things that were easy to discount, but ultimately proved to be significant. He feels that we are in a similar moment today - only instead of a viral disease ramping up, it is artificial intelligence.

In Shumer’s mind, this is not “an ‘eventually we should talk about this’ moment” - it’s a “this is happening right now and I need you to understand it” moment.

So what does Shumer think we need to understand?

First, is that AI has rendered much of his work as a technician obsolete. Instead of writing code (Shumer has deep programming experience), he is now just a conductor of AI that writes the code. This has multiplied the quantity of his coding output by orders of magnitude - while maintaining higher quality. You may be thinking “I’m not a computer programmer, so what does this have to do with me?” Shumer’s essay lays it out: “Making AI great at coding was the strategy that unlocks everything else. That's why they did it first. My job started changing before yours not because they were targeting software engineers... it was just a side effect of where they chose to aim first.”

Second, for those who have only dabbled with AI tools and are thinking “I tried it and it wasn’t that good” Shumer points out that most people are playing around with much older versions of AI (typically the no-cost versions) - and these are not reflective of AI’s current capabilities.

He also points out that by focusing AI on refining itself, the pace of improvement is going parabolic. Whatever experiences you have had with AI, they probably do not represent current reality - and AI’s capabilities are advancing much more rapidly than we are used to seeing happen. Consider this progression: “In 2022, AI couldn’t do basic arithmetic. By 2023, it could pass the bar exam. By 2024, it could write working software and explain graduate-level science. By late 2025, some of the best engineers in the world said they had handed over most of their coding to AI. On February 5th, 2026, new models arrived that made everything before them feel like a different era.”

So now that AI developers have turned AI into this recursively improving tool and essentially eliminated their own jobs as computer programmers, what segment of the workforce might be displaced next? Shumer sees the following knowledge work being capably handled by AI, at scale and very soon: Legal work, Financial analysis, Writing, Medical analysis, and Customer Service. He points out “If your job isn't mentioned here, that does not mean it's safe. Almost all knowledge work is being affected.”

So, AI is here and its effects are both srengthening and spreading rapidly. How do we respond to this? Shumer suggests the following posture:

Get good at working with AI - not the free versions, but pay to start experiencing what the latest versions can do for you today. And don’t just ask it questions - find work for it to do for you. Become the conductor of AI work product.

Drop your ego. The paradigm is shifting, don’t sit in a state of denial that everyone’s worlds aren’t being turned upside down. Stay open and receptive to this rapidly evolving world.

Get your financial house in order. Real disruption to markets is possible. Build up some savings, think twice about taking on any new debt right now. Give yourself options if things progress faster than you expect.

Lean in to what is hardest to replace. Relationships will probably matter even more, roles with licensed accountability will have more stability, industries with heavy regulatory hurdles may offer a safe haven, for a while.

Think big. Disruption creates opportunity. Don’t just play defense, start to brainstorm ways that you can use AI to create something that was previously out of reach to you (due to lack of technical skill).

Build the habit of adapting. Adaptation is a meta-skill that is almost certainly essential in this ever more rapidly changing world. Embrace it.

Time will tell just how prescient Shumer’s essay is. It’s hard for me to think that he is not directionally correct, even if some details play out differently than he imagines.

Sunday Supper

This Pork Tenderloin w/ Chickpeas, Tomatoes and Oregano Vinaigrette looks sturdy and satisfying. So do these Marsala Chicken Meatballs. This Red Cabbage Glazed w/ Maple Syrup would go well with some nice sausage. The rich simplicity of Cacio e Pepe never disappoints.

Sunday Music

Sarah McLachlan visited the NPR Tiny Desk this week. Jill Scott recently performed at Noochie’s Front Porch. Yissy García & Bandancha contributed their talents to Black Room Sessions. And here the Iván "Melón" Lewis Piano Trio performs Cuban Classics from the 1950s. Enjoy!

If you know anyone who might like this essay, please share it with them. 



Have a great week ahead!  You can do anything you set your mind to. Let me know how I can help.


Peace & Love,